BALLISTIC MISSILE DEVELOPMENTS IN ASIA-PACIFIC: REDUCING RISK THROUGH TRANSPARENCY AND CBMS

22-23 January 2025

Manila, Philippines

On 22-23 January 2025, the FRS in collaboration with the government of the Philippines hosted a regional seminar dedicated to Asia-Pacific. More than 50 participants representing 12 countries took part to this event.

AGENDA

Introduction

  • Mr Alexandre Houdayer, Secretary General, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

  • Amb. Johann Brieger, Ambassador to the Philippines, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Austria

  • Amb. Massimo Santoro, Ambassador, EU Delegation in the Philippines

  • H.E. Charles C. Jose, Undersecretary for Multilateral Affairs and International Economic Relations, Department of Foreign Affairs of the Philippines

First session: Ballistic missiles in Asia-pacific: the landscape

Moderator: Ms Emmanuelle Maitre, Research Fellow, FRS

  • Ms Zuzanna Gwadera, Research Assistant and Programme Administrator, IISS (remotely)

  • Mr Javed Alam, Research Associate for the Nuclear Vertical at the Centre for Air Power Studies

Second session: Drivers of missile dissemination in the region and potential risks

Moderator: Mr Simon Menet, Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

  • Prof. Mely Caballero-Anthony, Professor of International Relations and Head of the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU)

  •  Dr Kil Joo Ban, Assistant Professor, Korea National Diplomatic Academy

  • Ms Emmanuelle Maitre, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

Third session: Confidence-building measures and missiles

Moderator: Ms Emmanuelle Maitre, Research Fellow, FRS

  • Amb. Álvaro Domingo Jara Bucarey, Ambassador, Embassy of Chile in Manila (Representative of HCoC Chair)

  • Ms Lioba Bammer, Representative of the HCoC Executive Secretariat, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Austria

  • Mr Alexandre Houdayer, Secretary General, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

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Fourth Session: Missile crisis simulation exercises

  • Mr Simon Menet, Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

  • Ms Emmanuelle Maitre, Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

Fifth session: Space developments and spread of dual-use technologies

Moderator: Ms Emmanuelle Maitre, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

  • Prof. Setsuko Aoki, Professor of Law, Keio University Law School, Japan

  • Mr Alexandre Houdayer, Secretary General, FRS

  • Dr Yaries Mahardika Putro, Lecturer of International Law, Universitas Surabaya (UBAYA) (remotely)

  • Dr Joel Joseph S. Marciano, Jr., Director General, Philippine Space Agency

Sixth session: Nonproliferation and cooperation: finding the balance

Moderator: Mr Alexandre Houdayer, Secretary General, FRS

  • Ms. Karla Mae G. Pabeliña, Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Leadership Network

  • Ms Ida Scarpino, Political Affairs Officer, UNRCPD

Issue Briefs

The HCoC and Southeast Asian States

Only three out of ten Southeast Asian states have joined the HCoC to date (the Philippines, Cambodia and Singapore). This limited rate is noteworthy as Southeast Asia is increasingly concerned by the ongoing ballistic missile competition in broader Asia. Moreover, the region is actively investing to benefit from space technologies.

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Research Papers

Opening HCoC to cruise missiles: A proposal to overcome political hurdles

The issue of extending the scope of the Hague Code of Conduct to cruise missiles is regularly raised in academic and political discussions about the Code. Some non-subscribing States justify their refusal to join the instrument because of this exclusion, perceived as a major flaw. Indeed, cruise missiles have characteristics that can make them very effective in carrying weapons of mass destruction. It is therefore clearly of interest to consider extending the HCoC scope to these weapons.

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